Friday, December 23, 2011

6E - intraday trading with divergence/fib/pattern

This head and shoulders pattern on 15 min chart failed at 23.6% level of previous upmove, which is shown on the 4 hour chart. Trix shows more divergencies than Macd most of the time and give more smooth lines.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

6E - Intraday Trading with divergence/fib

Sellers made multiple attempts to this level for three and a half hours, but the fib levels and the positive divergence on 5 min chart on the left shows this level is likely hold support, and it bounced. The fib level on weekly chart on the right is 61.8% of the previous big move, and the 4 hour chart in the middle shows 150% extension of the previous upmove.

6E - Trendline / Fib

There is a fib extension at the level where it reversed, but the declining resistance trendline caught this level perfectly. Trading can be just that simple, and shows how powerful a single trendline can be.

Saturday, December 17, 2011

6E - Intraday trading with fib extension and divergence

This chart doesn't need much explanation and shows intraday trading can be enhanced by the spotting of these divergencies. Notice the -38.2% fibonacci extension level providing support to help bouncing from this level.

EURUSD - Fib/Fan/Trendline and Divergence


4 hour chart on the left shows how what started out as the falling wedge did break the resistance trendline out of the wedge, but ended up only expanding the wedge wider into almost a channel, which then moved back down to the support trendline. This has built positive divergence as shown on the daily chart in the middle, and has begun to bounce from this level where 78.6% fibonacci fan and 61.8% fibonacci retracement of the previous upmove is providing a barrier. The weekly chart on the right shows where the fibonacci levels are drawn from. Notice on the 4 hour chart the level bouncing from is -100% fibonacci extension from initial downmove from previous high, and how the -61.8% extension also provided support as previous low.

Saturday, December 10, 2011

6E double bottom with trendline/fibonacci/divergence



Downside pressure was retraced 50% as shown on 30 min chart on left before failing to go back down to retest the low, which built positive divergence and hit 78.6% retracement of the upmove from the low as shown on the 2 hour chart on the right. Notice that it is also where the support trendline is, strengthening support at this level. This bounce setup moved the price back up to the fibonacci levels shown on the charts.

Thursday, December 8, 2011

6E - Fib extension and divergence

Self explanatory as the positive divergence building on 5 min chart on the left suggests the bounce was coming after big pop and drop move from high impact news, unemployment claims. Notice it bounced from 38.2% fibonacci extension from the high and low drawn from initial downmove from previous swing high.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

6E - Trendline, channel, fibonacci and divergence

Few interesting technical tools at work here, first where it failed was 50% retracement of previous downmove shown on the chart in the middle, and could it be coincidence that it is also where 38.2% retracement level of the monthly chart on the right, covering years of trading. Notice it is also in the vicinity of channel trendline shown on the chart in the middle. Then, there is pretty obvious positive divergence on the 5min chart, where there is also support trendline. Sellers tried hours attempting to break lower, which did take the price down but built the positive divergence and bounced.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

6E move with trendline and fibonacci/extension/arc

Downside pressure that continued from the days selloff into afterhours was met with strong support level and bounced. Positive divergences on 15 min and 30 min charts were developing as the price hit multiple fibonacci levels, 61.8% of this upside move from the low and 123.6% extension of most immediate previous upmove, and also support trendline. Fibonacci arc also helped, however the arc is subjective to the timeframe it is drawn on as the shape changes in different timeframes and zoom level. It is interesting to see that the arc works as well as the other fibonacci tools.

Monday, December 5, 2011

6E Intraday Double Top on 1600 tick chart

1600 tick chart on the left shows negative divergence building up to the top and the double top that followed, which subsequently fell and found initial support at 50% fibonacci retracement level of the move from the bottom shown on 1 hour chart on the right.  1 hour chart also shows the fibonacci fan levels that acted as support and resistance. Notice the 50% fan level(white line) that it initially bounced from previous sell off got broken like butter and didn't provide any support when it failed at 38.2% fan line above and fell. 61.8% fan line below did provide initial support along with the 50% level mentioned, together strengthening the level for initial bounce. 1600 tick chart also shows 23.6% fibonacci retracement level as resistance, which took the price lower.

Friday, December 2, 2011

Intraday Trading - Double Top on 1 hour chart


This chart shows clearly the new high made on unemployment news was done showing negative divergence on 1 hour chart. 1600 tick chart on the left shows closer view to confirm the negative divergence right before the move. Sure enough, it fell hard to the 61.8% retracement level of the big rally 2 days ago. What is interesting is that before the news it has been setting up for 2 days, kind of makes you wonder, was it the news that really suddenly moved the market?

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

6E Falling Wedge on 4 hour chart breakout

The 6E falling wedge that has morphed into the final pattern by extending the trendlines both lower and upper, has finally broke out in one swift motion with big volume.

Monday, November 28, 2011

Intraday Trading - Double Top 'M' pattern

When the market seems to be chopping around, it's still moving in the ordinary rule following way that it always does, and it is visible on the chart for those who have eyes that can see them. If you can avoid analysis paralysis and keep it simple, you could see this setup that took slmost all market hours to play out.

Sunday, November 27, 2011

EURUSD Falling Wedge on 4 hour chart


EURUSD has failed at upper trendline and extended the falling wedge's lower trendline. The 61.8% fib fan line suggest potential downside target for this move, as it began to bounce off that level. Notice the positive divergence on 4 hour chart has extended as the price went lower. Remains to be seen if it will continue its descend to morph into a channel and hit the lower chanel trendline (not drawn) or reverse.  If it holds this level, it is higher low, and it can try moving upward, and this level and setup certainly shows that possibility, but make no mistake we can't ignore the purpose for this down move is to test previous low and make new low as there surely will be more trading to determine the outcome.

Friday, November 18, 2011

6E Intraday Analysis using simple tools

Technial analysis can be applied to intraday trading without being overly complicated. I find 1600 tick chart frequently gives good clues for intraday reversals, and with addition of fibonacci levels as a helper, good trade like this can be found to put odds in your favor.

6E Falling Wedge on 4 hour chart


Continuing from the previous 4 hour chart that initially showed the bounce on the first level of divergence, price has now moved lower failing to make higher high, and morphed into a falling wedge pattern that is almost fully developed. Notice the 23.6% retracement is at the same level as the upper resistance trendline where it initially bounced from. The weekly chart on the right shows rising wedge break that was not fully developed, and going back up to test the trendline, rejected there which is also at 23.6% level, and moving down to 50% level and bouncing, as it was building the falling wedge that shows on the 4 hour chart on the left.  50% level was 1.34, and it came to 1.342, 20 pips above it.
Measuring the target of the falling wedge gives the target of about 500 pips from the trendline break.

Saturday, November 12, 2011

Chart on the left is simply showing that the divergence developed on 4hour chart played out to push the price to the upside, and stalling at 38.2% fib retrace level. On the weekly chart on the right shows how broken support trendline became resistance when the price tried to move back to the upside, along with the 23.6% fib level and the declining channel trendline not far above from this resistance area.  Also where the price has bounced off on the positive divergence built on the 4hour timeframe on the left, is the support trendline of declining channel and not far from the 50% fib level. Notice how the price has broken below that support trendline, but came back above and the original channel support trendline still provided support powered by the positive divergence of the 4 hour chart.

Saturday, November 5, 2011

As one of the popular tools of technical analysis, fibonacci is somewhat of a mysterious one. Here is an example of fibonacci fan at work.

Saturday, October 15, 2011

ES Chart Analysis - Pattern Morphosis

The Chart is self explanatory. It shows that technical analysis is really that simple and works. It is about eliminating noise and getting to the truth.
This chart is a classic case of rising wedge breaking down with huge negative divergence clearly visible on weekly chart, then the pattern morphs into a channel by bouncing off from channel support trendline with clearly visible positive divergence on the daily chart.
And on Friday 10/14/2011, it closes right at 50% fib retracement of entire down move.