Wednesday, November 30, 2011

6E Falling Wedge on 4 hour chart breakout

The 6E falling wedge that has morphed into the final pattern by extending the trendlines both lower and upper, has finally broke out in one swift motion with big volume.

Monday, November 28, 2011

Intraday Trading - Double Top 'M' pattern

When the market seems to be chopping around, it's still moving in the ordinary rule following way that it always does, and it is visible on the chart for those who have eyes that can see them. If you can avoid analysis paralysis and keep it simple, you could see this setup that took slmost all market hours to play out.

Sunday, November 27, 2011

EURUSD Falling Wedge on 4 hour chart


EURUSD has failed at upper trendline and extended the falling wedge's lower trendline. The 61.8% fib fan line suggest potential downside target for this move, as it began to bounce off that level. Notice the positive divergence on 4 hour chart has extended as the price went lower. Remains to be seen if it will continue its descend to morph into a channel and hit the lower chanel trendline (not drawn) or reverse.  If it holds this level, it is higher low, and it can try moving upward, and this level and setup certainly shows that possibility, but make no mistake we can't ignore the purpose for this down move is to test previous low and make new low as there surely will be more trading to determine the outcome.

Friday, November 18, 2011

6E Intraday Analysis using simple tools

Technial analysis can be applied to intraday trading without being overly complicated. I find 1600 tick chart frequently gives good clues for intraday reversals, and with addition of fibonacci levels as a helper, good trade like this can be found to put odds in your favor.

6E Falling Wedge on 4 hour chart


Continuing from the previous 4 hour chart that initially showed the bounce on the first level of divergence, price has now moved lower failing to make higher high, and morphed into a falling wedge pattern that is almost fully developed. Notice the 23.6% retracement is at the same level as the upper resistance trendline where it initially bounced from. The weekly chart on the right shows rising wedge break that was not fully developed, and going back up to test the trendline, rejected there which is also at 23.6% level, and moving down to 50% level and bouncing, as it was building the falling wedge that shows on the 4 hour chart on the left.  50% level was 1.34, and it came to 1.342, 20 pips above it.
Measuring the target of the falling wedge gives the target of about 500 pips from the trendline break.

Saturday, November 12, 2011

Chart on the left is simply showing that the divergence developed on 4hour chart played out to push the price to the upside, and stalling at 38.2% fib retrace level. On the weekly chart on the right shows how broken support trendline became resistance when the price tried to move back to the upside, along with the 23.6% fib level and the declining channel trendline not far above from this resistance area.  Also where the price has bounced off on the positive divergence built on the 4hour timeframe on the left, is the support trendline of declining channel and not far from the 50% fib level. Notice how the price has broken below that support trendline, but came back above and the original channel support trendline still provided support powered by the positive divergence of the 4 hour chart.

Saturday, November 5, 2011

As one of the popular tools of technical analysis, fibonacci is somewhat of a mysterious one. Here is an example of fibonacci fan at work.